Financial Resilience Analysis of Petrochemical Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange Using the ARDL Model

Heidarpour, Afshin; Darabizadeh, Abolfazl; Sadeghi Hasanabadi, Mahdi

doi:10.22054/fiba.2025.84092.1022

Financial Resilience Analysis of Petrochemical Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange Using the ARDL Model

Authors

Afshin Heidarpour ¹

Abolfazl Darabizadeh ²

Mahdi Sadeghi Hasanabadi ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Institute for Higher Education Research and Planning, Department of Higher Education Economics, Tehran, Iran

² Master's Student in Islamic Studies and Financial Management, Imam Sadiq University, and Researcher at the Islamic Parliament Research Center Of The Islamic Republic Of IRAN

³ Master's Student in Islamic Studies and Financial Management, Imam Sadiq University

https://doi.org/10.22054/fiba.2025.84092.1022

Abstract

Financial resilience is a key factor in corporate management, reflecting a company’s ability to navigate economic fluctuations, market instability, and external shocks. This study explores the main drivers of financial resilience in Iran’s petrochemical industry by analyzing companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and detailed statistical data, the research examines how ownership structure, risk management, innovation, and market diversification influence financial resilience. The findings show that state-owned and publicly held companies play a major role in strategic decision-making and crisis management. Their financial stability and efficiency are particularly affected by sanctions and global market fluctuations.
Results indicate that higher OPEC oil prices, a strong Tobin’s Q index, larger firm size, strong cash flow, and higher return on assets positively contribute to financial resilience. On the other hand, a declining Tobin’s Q index and financial leverage have negative effects, though the impact of financial leverage was not statistically significant. Moreover, market diversification and effective cost management are key factors in strengthening financial resilience.
The study also highlights differences between private and state-owned firms. Private companies, with their greater flexibility, adapt more efficiently to market changes and generate higher shareholder returns. In contrast, state-owned enterprises, being heavily influenced by government policies, face challenges in maintaining efficiency.
Focusing on Iran’s petrochemical sector—the second-largest producer in the Middle East—this research offers valuable insights to enhance financial resilience and support better economic policymaking.

Keywords

Financial Resilience

Petrochemical Industry

Ownership Structure

Market Diversification

ARDL Model

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